HG Infra: HG Infra (HG) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 9.1/1.5/0.9bn, ahead of our estimates by 28/30/50%. The order book (OB) stands at INR 61bn (~2.4x FY21 revenue). Over the past few quarters, HG has delivered a strong execution outperformance, strengthened its balance sheet, started winning new orders, and showed strong recovery in NWC days. We believe HG deserves a multiple upgrade, backed by robust growth and solid financial discipline. We increase our P/E target multiple from 10x to 12x, upgrade our FY22/23 EPS by 5.8/6.3%, and roll forward our valuation to Jun-23E. We maintain BUY with an increased SOTP-based TP of INR 702/Sh. Somany Ceramics: We maintain our BUY rating on Somany Ceramics (SOMC) with an unchanged target price of INR 940/share (13x Jun23E consolidated EBITDA). We continue to like SOMC for its strong retail distribution, improving product mix, and tightened working capital. In Q1FY22, pandemic impact pulled down SOMCs tiles volume by 41% QoQ and even bathware revenue halved. Thus, consolidated revenue/EBITDA/APAT fell 41/74/91% QoQ to INR 3,299/231/45mn respectively. In addition to the op-lev loss, soaring fuel prices also hit the margin and profits. ITD Cementation: ITD Cementation (ITD) reported in-line revenue/EBITDA at INR 8.2/0.8bn. However, APAT missed our estimates by 19% on higher-than-expected taxes and lower share of profits from associates/JVs. The order backlog (OB) is robust at INR 120bn (4.4x FY21 revenue), aided by Q1FY22 order wins of INR 16bn. While the lockdown impacted execution to an extent during the quarter, ITD has retained its earlier guidance of 15-20% topline growth for FY22....
BSE reported operational revenue growth of 24% YoY in 4QFY21. Growth was led by a 117% YoY increase in equity transaction charges; this was partially offset by revenue decline in Star MF on moderation in realization on the platform. Overall strong market activity led to an 86%/17% YoY increase in transaction charges / services to corporates. A robust increase in margins was the function of operating leverage in the business. The managements decision to explore options to unlock value from its Star MF segment is encouraging; however, no bids have been accepted thus far....
HSIE Results Daily: ITC, Cipla, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank and Ujjivan Financial Services, Dilip Buildcon, BSE
BSE: We maintain BUY on BSE based on better-than-expected revenue and operational performance. Revenue growth of 21.5/15.2% QoQ/YoY was led by improvement in core revenue (cash transaction +51.8% QoQ) and higher listing fee (+20.7% QoQ). EBITDA margin improved to 17.8% vs. -7.8% QoQ (highest in the past nine quarters) due to the rise in revenue and a decline in fixed cost (-7.2% QoQ). The StAR MF platform witnessed strong growth (+67% YoY), but the fall in realisation impacted revenue in 2Q, which should normalise from 3Q onwards. BSE cash market share declined to 5.9% (-80bps YoY) despite the jump in volumes. It is trying to build the derivative volume again, the market share of which is currently at 4%. The revival of derivatives volume on BSE, smart order routing, and interoperability are key triggers to transaction revenue (market share gain). New initiatives like insurance platform, spot exchange and INX are promising but do not provide revenue visibility in the near term. We arrive at an SoTP-based target price of Rs 680 by assigning 10x multiple to core Sep-22E PAT (Rs 125/share), Rs 160/share for the CDSL stake (25% discount) and adding net cash excluding SGF and clearing cash (Rs 395/share). BSE has net cash of Rs 17.8bn (~79% of market cap) and a dividend yield of ~5%, which limits downside. The stock is trading at a P/E of 12.0/10.3x FY21/22E EPS. ITC: ITC delivered a mixed bag result in a challenging environment. Most OOH consumption categories were impacted in 2Q, and the cigarettes category was not...
BSEs 2QFY21 reported revenue was above estimates, largely led higher revenue from services to corporates. Managements decision to explore options to unlock value from its Star MF segment is encouraging. Strong transactional income from the Equity segment was offset by lower revenue in Star MF on one-time rate negotiation. Cross-subsidization by NSE has limited monetization opportunities for BSE in the INX and Commodity Derivatives segments in the near term. While the announced additional income streams may be small currently, some of them have the potential to...
Cross-subsidization by NSE has limited monetization opportunities for BSE in the Star MF, INX, and Commodity Derivatives segments in the near term. This was primarily due to a decrease in turnover by 26% YoY in the Equity Cash segment (special rate group) in 1QFY21 and one- While total expenditure of INR1.0b was lower than estimated, overall decline in revenues resulted in largely in-line EBITDA (v/s estimates). NSEs competitive pricing has impacted BSEs ability to charge in the Star MF, INX, and Commodity Derivatives segments. NSEs competitive pricing has impacted BSEs ability to charge in the Star MF, INX, and Commodity Derivatives segments. This was primarily due to a decrease in turnover by 26% YoY in the Equity Cash segment (special rate group) in 1QFY21 and one-off income in While total expenditure of INR1.0b was lower than estimated, overall decline in revenues resulted in largely in-line EBITDA (v/s estimates).
BSE cash market share has slipped to 6.4% vs ~13/9% in FY18/19 and currency derivative segment is also facing tough competition. Investments in INX and newer initiatives (commodity & Insurance distribution) have impacted EBITDA margins (1.1% in 9MFY20, down ~7% YoY). We expect revenue growth of 12.0/10.4% in FY21/22E led by rebound in transaction revenue (better market condition, StAR MF and INX contribution). We expect operating leverage to play out with growth (EBITDA margin of 8.8/14.2% for FY21/22E). BSE has net cash of Rs ~20bn (~77% of MCap) and a dividend yield of ~5%, which limits downside. Risks include rise in competition, loss of market share and increase in investments. We maintain NEU on BSE based on revenue and margin miss in 3QFY20. The core revenue stream is under pressure, margin is in the negative territory due to ongoing investments in new initiatives (INX). BSE cash market share has declined to 6.4% but StAR MF platform is witnessing continued traction. We arrive at a SoTP based TP of Rs 590 by assigning 15x multiple to core Dec-21E PAT (Rs 46/sh), Rs 105/sh for the CDSL stake and adding net cash (Rs 439/sh).
BSE is witnessing continuous decline in core business metrics. Cash market share has slipped to 6.7% vs ~13/9% in FY18/19 and currency derivative is also under pressure. Continued investments in INX and newer initiatives (commodity & Insurance distribution) have impacted EBITDA margins (2.1% in 1HFY20, down ~10% YoY). We expect revenue growth of 12.8/0.3% in FY21/22E led by rebound in transaction revenue (better market condition, StAR MF and INX contribution). We expect some operating leverage to play out with growth (EBITDA margin of 12.0/16.5% for FY21/22E). BSE has net cash of Rs ~20bn (~82% of MCap) and a dividend yield of ~6%, which limits downside. Risks include a rise in competition, loss of market share and an increase in investments. We maintain NEU on BSE based on unexciting 2QFY20. The core revenue stream remains under pressure while new age platform like StAR MF is doing well. Margin expansion will come with growth. We arrive at a SoTP based TP of Rs 585 by assigning 25x to core Sep-21E PAT (Rs 122/sh), Rs 111/sh for the CDSL stake and adding net cash after 20% discount (Rs 351/sh).
26 October 2019 INR22.6b (in-line) were flat YoY. The 9% YoY growth in pharmaceuticals (64% of sales) was offset by 15% YoY decline in Life Science Ingredients (LSI) (33% of sales). Particularly, Generics segment in Pharma and Specialty Intermediates in LSI grew 20%/32% YoY to INR3b/INR2.6b. 450bp YoY (~50bp QoQ) to 66% due to superior product mix. EBITDA margin grew at lower rate of 90bp YoY to 20.7% (in-line) due to higher employee cost (+130bp YoY as % of sales) and other expense (+170bp YoY as % of sales). INR2.2b) due to lower tax outgo. For 1HFY20, sales/EBITDA/PAT came in at INR44b/INR9b/INR4.4b, up 2%/3%/8% YoY. mirror shareholding as that of JLS would be listed on the BSE/NSE. Process would take about nine months. The Pharma entity had sales/EBITDA of INR56b/INR14b and LSI had sales/EBITDA of INR36b/INR4.
BSE has been investing in future growth drivers like INX, Insurance distribution, SME and StAR MF. Out of these only StAR MF has started generating revenue while the rest would need more time. Incremental revenue from StAR MF, volume revival and higher listing fee should lead to revenue growth of 11.1/11.8% in FY20/21E. We expect some operating leverage to play out with growth (EBITDA margin of 11.4/15.8% for FY20/21E). The stock is down 23% in the last 3M due to stress in the tradition revenue stream, continued investments despite slowdown and buyback tax. Value is emerging with net cash of Rs 20bn (~80% of MCap) and a dividend yield of ~7%. Risks include a rise in competition, loss of market share and an increase in investments. We maintain BUY on BSE based on in-line revenue and better margins. Increasing revenue contribution from StAR MF platform and rise in listing fee (exclusively listed) are positives. Buyback of Rs 4.6bn will be completed and tax applicable is only Rs 0.12bn (~3%). We arrive at a SoTP of Rs 655 at 25x core FY21E PAT plus Rs 134/share for stake in CDSL plus net-cash (ex-buyback and with 20% discount).
BSE Limited (BSE) is an India-based stock exchange company. BSE provides a transparent market for trading in equity, debt instruments, derivatives and mutual funds. The Company consists of two business segments: Stock Exchange activity and Depository activity. Stock exchange activity is engaged in facilitating the trading of securities and the activities incidental thereto, and Depository activity provides depository-related services. It also has a platform for trading in equities of small and medium enterprises (SME). BSE also provides various services to capital market participants, including risk management, clearing, settlement, market data services and education. The Companys subsidiaries include Marketplace Technologies Private Limited, Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL), Indian...
Maintain BUY with SoTP of Rs 758 by assigning 25x to Dec-20E core PAT (ex-CDSL), Rs 120/share for the CDSL stake plus net cash. BSE reported weak 3QFY19, with revenue down 9.1% QoQ to Rs 1.05bn. There is visible weakness in core business streams (across listing fees, cash equity and even currencies, where BSE was dominant). BSE continues to lose equity cash market share (-43 bps QoQ to 8.3%), while its grip on currency derivatives also loosened this quarter (-326bps QoQ to 44.0% share). Drop in revenues and ongoing investments in new initiatives led to steep fall in EBITDA margin, (adjusted margin stood at 1% down 796bps QoQ).
Maintain BUY with SoTP of Rs 871 at assign 25x (vs. 30x earlier) on Sep-20E core PAT (ex-CDSL), Rs 129/sh for the CDSL stake plus cash. BSE stumbled in 2QFY19, with revenue crawling up 0.3% QoQ to Rs 1.15bn. There is visible weakness in core business streams (across listing fees, cash equity and even currencies, where BSE is dominant). BSE continues to lose equity cash market share (-117 bps QoQ to 8.7%), while its grip on currency derivatives also loosened this quarter (-469bps QoQ to 47.3% share).
2 November 2018 consolidated operating revenues grew 1.2% YoY to INR1.12b, below our estimate of INR1.2b. The miss was on account of lower other revenues which includes Rent, Training, Recovery charges, etc. Operating revenues exclude Treasury Income from Clearing Corporation. EBITDA at INR93m was below our estimate of INR167m, but included one-time charges totaling INR74m from  provision for investment in IL&FS;, and  provision for bad debts. Adjusted for the same, EBITDA would have been in line. PAT was INR459m (-31% YoY), 12% miss, which again would have been in line adjusted for the one-offs. revenue grew 1% YoY, revenues from equity cash transactions fell 33% YoY to INR218m, owing to prevailing market conditions. The same is the case for Book Building services too, down 28% YoY to INR72m. Annual listing fees, an annuity in nature, grew 10% YoY to INR472m.
We still see value based on (1) Huge net cash of Rs 26bn (~Rs 509/sh, ~62% of MCap), (2) Increased contribution from new growth engines, and (3) High dividend yield of 4.4%. We maintain BUY on BSE, and our SoTP for BSE factors in Rs 126/sh for CDSL, assigns 30x to FY20E core PAT (ex-CDSL) and add back net cash, which works out to Rs 1,090 (32% upside). BSE posted lower-than-expected numbers in 1QFY19 both on the revenue and margin fronts. Revenue was down 19.2% QoQ to Rs 1.17bn (our est. was Rs 1.38bn), led by 42.2% QoQ fall in transaction revenue (23% of rev) and 9.7% QoQ fall in services to corporate (48% of rev). Exclusive cash segment ADTV slipped 50% QoQ due to weak market conditions and ASM while currency derivative ADTV was up 45.7% QoQ.
We maintain BUY on BSE, and our SoTP for BSE factors in Rs 137/sh for CDSL, assigns 30x to FY20E core PAT (ex-CDSL) and add back net cash, which works out to Rs 1,190 (45% upside). BSE posted better-than-expected numbers in 4QFY18 both on the revenue and margin fronts. Revenue was up 8.6% QoQ to Rs 1.37bn (our est. was Rs 1.27bn), led by 8.2% QoQ rise in transaction revenue (35% of rev) and 7.4% QoQ rise in services to corporate (45% of rev). Exclusive cash segment/Currency Derivative ADTV was up 23/40% YoY in FY18. Margin improved 133bps QoQ to 28.1% (ex one-off) vs. our expectation of 25.0%, led by non-linearity. Margin improvement in FY18 was impressive, +1671 bps YoY to 21.0%.
BSEs 4QFY18 consol. revenue grew 25% YoY to INR1.39b (excl. investment income), above our estimate of INR1.2b, led by continued growth in Services to corporates (+30% YoY). However, EBITDA margin of 20.1% missed our estimate by 130bp due to a surge in other expenses (incl. regulatory fees, CSR and one-time repairs to the building). PAT of INR622m was above our estimate of INR577m, mainly led by better revenues and higher other income. FY18 revenues grew 29%, EBITDA was up almost 5x and adj. PAT rose 30%
BSE has started charging 32 of the 37 asset management companies (AMCs) for services through its mutual fund (MF) platform. This could be an INR150m-200mrevenue opportunity in the next fiscal; however,being the first year, we are currently modeling INR100m revenues from the segment. With ~50% of equity transaction revenues from exclusive segments, dependence one quity transactions where BSE is a distant second to NSE, is <15%. BSE cited that volumes in the exclusively-listed segment are inelastic to transaction charges, and hence, it does not feel the need to reduce the current fee. We note that BSE should be paying out 85%+ of its non-exceptional profits as dividends. And any buybacks like the one currently underway will be over and above the dividends. The combination will keep yields attractive (currently ~5%)
We maintain BUY on BSE, and our SoTP for BSE factors in Rs 148/share for CDSL and assigns 25x to Dec-19 earnings (ex-CDSL), which works out to Rs 1,210 (+43% upside). Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd (BSE) posted better-than-expected numbers in 3QFY18, on both the revenue and margin fronts. Revenue was up 12.7% QoQ to Rs 1.26bn (our est. was Rs 1.15bn), led by 24.8% QoQ rise in transaction revenue (35% of rev) and 8.9% QoQ rise in services to corporate (46% of rev). Change in transaction charges to Rs 1.5/trade and robust growth in exclusive listed shares volume (+51% QoQ) led to a rise in transaction revenue. Margin improvement was sharp (+281bps QoQ to 26.8% vs. our est. of 24.2%), led by non-linearity.
Transaction revenue from exclusively listed stocks BSE has a monopoly with 12001500 actively traded exclusively listed stocks. Taking advantage of this monopoly, BSE took a steep price hike in FY16 from `125/10mn to `10000/10mn. This led to a sharp jump in the illiquid cash equity revenue which now constitute 50% of total cash equity transaction...
We maintain BUY on BSE, and our SoTP for BSE factors Rs 430/sh from CDSL and assigns 25x to Sep-19 earnings (ex-CDSL), which works out to Rs 1,206 (22% upside from CMP). Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd (BSE) posted better-than-expected numbers in 2QFY18, on both the revenue and margin fronts. Revenue was up 7.9% QoQ to Rs 1.11bn (our est. was Rs 1.06bn), led by 11.3% up-tick in services to corporates (48% of rev) and 10.4% QoQ rise in transaction revenue (32% of rev). Margin improvement was sharp (+797bps QoQ to 23.4% vs. our estimate of 15.7%), led by a cut in tech expenses.
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