Top authors: USTREASURY/REALYIELD
See attached analysis.
What are real interest rates? The real interest rate is the rate of interest an investor, saver or lender receives after allowing for inflation. It can be described more formally by the Fisher equation, which states that the real interest rate is approximately the nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate. Now, two scenarios unfold. One, the gap in the...
I’ve been tracking these for a while now… could real long term yields be heading back into the abyss? A weekly close below -0.45% enacts a -1.50% target, to magnetized median pivot line.
This chart shows that Gold is currently at or nearing a high in comparison to the US Real yields cycle, and not at the buying price that many think it is. A possible 24% correction is in order IMO.
Last time MACD had same construct... 30 year real yields plummeted and silver moved up 100% in price. Just wondering how low & fast those real yields will drop... Still targeting +50$ #silver this year. #gotsilver #debt #wallstreetsilver #fintwit
What happens next will be VERY interesting. Analog to golds 2012-13 bear market entry visible. March close is judgment day. #terminator #gold #silver
IF those 30 year real yields have topped... then time to look at how this propels gold & silver next moves. 54$ #silver 2300$ #gold July 2021
Silver not crumbling while real rates SKY rocketing... Could simply be its discounting incoming inflation, just around the corner, which will revert the down trend in real rates. #gotsilver #silver #fintwit
Since 2018, Gold has pretty closely tracked the inverted real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. Recently, however, a fairly large gap has opened between the two. Will gold close the gap with inverted bond yields, or vice versa? Generally speaking, it looks like gold has led bonds for most of this period. That suggests that gold investors are a little quicker to...
The lowest-rated debt keeps outperforming safer securities, with investors apparently more concerned about Treasury yields moving higher than credit risk. Investors are now demanding the least extra yield to own junk bonds over investment-grade notes since 2014. Rising treasury yields implies one of two scenarios is happening or about to happen. 1. Global...
February close will be critical for both 30 year real yields and gold.
30 year real yields looking to turn for the worst, which is good for precious metals.
Zooming out to monthly chart for 30 year real yields... market always seems to need more time to figure things out than my 100 MPH imagination! Note that near perfect touch of declining 1 year moving average. #gold #silver $slv $gld #fintwit
Simple trend projection - gold to $3,080 and 5-year real yield to -4.75% by Aug-22. Acknowledgements to @Amkeller1 and @Badcharts
Medium-term projected gold price realted to projected downward continuation of 5 year real interest rates. Thanks to @Amkeller1 and @Badcharts for assistance and inspiration.
usually 2 weeks for stoch to sharply turn down after a peak in price...
Like Seinfeld once said, ending a relationship is like toplling a fridge... ....you need few times before it topples over! #silver #gold $slv $gld #fintwit
daily chart giving signs of turning down...
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